At some critical point a leader will have to emerge that can steer us out of rolling lockdown, someone with the courage to say what is obvious to anyone with common sense - covid and its variants are here to stay; the cordon sanitaire around little islands of health won’t work and a level of risk will have to be accepted. You will catch it. The present level of disruption is unacceptable. Can EU bureaucracy manage to move away from the instinct of control which is natural to any bureaucracy. I think probably not so it will be up to some one of the central powers to bell that cat. My bet is on France but the British may go first to demonstrate their independence.
Saturday 20 February 2021
Ending the Covidology
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From this BMJ article published 18 February 2021:
"The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus will not be eradicated but will become endemic, continuing to circulate in pockets of the global population for years to come and causing outbreaks in regions where it had been eliminated, scientists working in the field believe. But the impact of the virus on the world in terms of deaths, illness, and the need for social isolation will lessen, they say, as more of the population acquires some immunity to it through exposure to the virus or from vaccination."
I'm opting for the latter path to immunity, having gotten my first Moderna shot 9 days ago. In doing so I'm reducing my immediate personal risk while probably also contributing incrementally to herd immunity by not becoming a vector of contagion for any of the known strains of the virus currently in circulation. I also understand your principled refusal to get vaccinated, Michael.
It's that little phrase 'need for social isolation will lessen' that hangs in the air. It's inflatable and could mean anything from staying in your room for a few days to vax pass control.
Lately the rates of infection are dropping it seems and some are postulating a greater degree of herd immunity than was thought to be the case. There must be given that many people are asymptomatic.
Best Wishes and Good Health,
Michael
Thanks and sláinte right back at ya. I just wrote a post about the possibility of herd immunity that might interest you. One observation: social isolation isn't just behavioral; it's also structural. A recent article in The Atlantic calls it "partial immunity among the very populations that have been most likely to contract the disease, perhaps narrowing the path forward for the original SARS-CoV-2.” In the US it's the Hispanics and to a lesser extent the blacks, but those racial categories serve mostly as proxies for class distinctions. Maybe there are parallels in Ireland.
Interesting post as usual on the structural aspect. The travelers (itinerant tinsmith of old) have offered a large harvest like haredis in Israel and ultra orthodox Hasidim in London. Average age of death here is past life expectancy. Rate of suicide increase is not written about. My life is hardly altered apart from wearing a mask when I go out, leaving the compound I call it, for an hour or two a week. This government will be punished in the next election.
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